Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Pennsylvania's Hard-Fought Primary

Both sides are fighting for votes in Pennsylvania. You cannot watch any television -- broadcast or cable -- without seeing their ads. Although Obama has more ads running, you usually see ads from both sides.

Radio news and talk shows are also filled with reports, analysis, and interviews about the campaigns.

My better half received an Obama postcard mailing; I received a phone message with Hillary talking about her strengths. (The voice mail was of terrible quality, and droned on forever. It was not an effective way of contacting voters.). The lone political yard sign in our neighborhood is for Clinton. (Since we don't have front yards, our neighbor placed the sign in their front window).

On Saturday, we went to some tourist sights in the downtown area and we encountered a large group of volunteers distributing literature for Clinton and a lone volunteer distributing fliers for Obama. On Sunday, we went on errands (Lowe's and Home Depot, of course) in one of the suburbs and encountered a large group of Clinton volunteers at all corners of a strategic intersection. When we returned home, we found that an Obama volunteer had left literature on our doorstep.

This morning, we awoke to find on our door a reminder to vote, along with our polling location, and the polling hours on a door hanger about Obama. At noon, the Obama campaign left another reminder to vote on another Obama door hanger.

My observation is that Obama is outspending Clinton, and is out organizing her, using volunteers in very effective contacts that usually target voters who are registered as Democrats.

My prediction is if Clinton wins Pennsylvania, it will be by a very small margin. This is amazing, because just six weeks ago she was leading Obama in the polls by twenty points. But even if she wins here, she has lost the race. She is already having trouble raising money, and that problem will accelerate after today. I suspect she'll withdraw sometime in May.

1 comment:

Faye said...

Thanks for describing how the campaign has been fought on the PA "frontlines",GMAC I imagine you all have had about all the attention you can stand for awhile. Not sure whether the race will still be on for the KY primary the end of May. MSNBC was reporting that the funds were pouring in to the Clinton campaign tonight.

Re your "Bitter" post and comment, I understand why you would vote for Obama--many of my close friends are supporting him also because they are anxious for a more elevated political discourse. I, perhaps unfortunately,am willing to give up some idealism and stick with Hillary because of that grit and experience that you described. She is in many ways a brilliant, but flawed person. Even tonight in her victory speech when she mentioned the 90 yr. old veteran giving her the photo with words of support, I found myself thinking "Please don't be making up this story". . .